Boeing Forecasts Demand for Nearly 44,000 New Airplanes Through 2043 as Air Travel Surpasses Pre-Pandemic Levels
Boeing [NYSE: BA] projects a 3% increase in airplane deliveries over the next 20 years, with carriers requiring nearly 44,000 new commercial airplanes by 2043. The 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) predicts emerging markets and global single-aisle market demand will be primary growth drivers. Key highlights include:
- Global commercial fleet growth of 3.2% annually
- Air cargo fleet increase by two-thirds by 2043
- South Asia leading passenger traffic growth at 7.4%
- Single-aisle airplanes making up 71% of the 2043 fleet
- Commercial services demand valued at $4.4 trillion
- Need for 2.4 million new aviation personnel
The forecast reflects the industry's resilience and adaptability in a dynamic market, with air travel demand outpacing economic growth.
Boeing [NYSE: BA] prevede un aumento del 3% delle consegne di aerei nei prossimi 20 anni, con le compagnie aeree che richiederanno quasi 44.000 nuovi aerei commerciali entro il 2043. Il Rapporto sulle Prospettive del Mercato Commerciale 2024 (CMO) prevede che i mercati emergenti e la domanda globale di aerei a corridoio singolo saranno i principali motori di crescita. Tra i punti salienti:
- Crescita della flotta commerciale globale del 3,2% all'anno
- Aumento della flotta di cargo aereo di due terzi entro il 2043
- L'Asia meridionale guida la crescita del traffico passeggeri con un 7,4%
- Gli aerei a corridoio singolo costituiscono il 71% della flotta del 2043
- La domanda di servizi commerciali è valutata a 4,4 trilioni di dollari
- Necessità di 2,4 milioni di nuovi personale aeronautico
Le previsioni riflettono la resilienza e l'adattabilità del settore in un mercato dinamico, con una domanda di viaggi aerei che supera la crescita economica.
Boeing [NYSE: BA] proyecta un aumento del 3% en las entregas de aviones durante los próximos 20 años, con las aerolíneas requiriendo casi 44.000 nuevos aviones comerciales para 2043. Las Perspectivas del Mercado Comercial 2024 (CMO) predicen que los mercados emergentes y la demanda global de aviones de pasillo único serán los principales motores de crecimiento. Los puntos destacados incluyen:
- Crecimiento de la flota comercial global del 3,2% anualmente
- Incremento de la flota de carga aérea en dos tercios para 2043
- El sur de Asia lidera el crecimiento del tráfico de pasajeros con un 7,4%
- Los aviones de pasillo único representan el 71% de la flota de 2043
- La demanda de servicios comerciales valorada en 4,4 billones de dólares
- Necesidad de 2,4 millones de nuevo personal en la aviación
Las previsiones reflejan la resiliencia y la adaptabilidad de la industria en un mercado dinámico, con la demanda de viajes aéreos superando el crecimiento económico.
Boeing [NYSE: BA]은 향후 20년 동안 항공기 인도가 3% 증가할 것으로 예상하며, 항공사들은 2043년까지 거의 44,000개의 새로운 상업용 항공기가 필요할 것이라고 전했습니다. 2024년 상업 시장 전망(CMO)은 신흥 시장과 글로벌 단일 기내 수요가 주요 성장 동력이 될 것이라고 예측합니다. 주요 하이라이트는 다음과 같습니다:
- 글로벌 상업용 항공기 수년간 연 3.2% 성장
- 2043년까지 화물 항공기 수가 3분의 2 증가
- 남아시아의 승객 교통 성장률 7.4%로 선도
- 단일 기내 항공기가 2043년 플릿의 71% 차지
- 상업 서비스 수요 4.4 조 달러 평가
- 240만 명의 새로운 항공 인력 필요
이 예측은 산업의 회복력과 동적 시장에서의 적응력을 반영하며, 항공 여행 수요가 경제 성장률을 초과하는 것을 보여줍니다.
Boeing [NYSE: BA] projette une augmentation de 3 % des livraisons d'avions au cours des 20 prochaines années, les compagnies aériennes nécessitant presque 44 000 nouveaux avions commerciaux d'ici 2043. Les Perspectives du Marché Commercial 2024 (CMO) prédisent que les marchés émergents et la demande mondiale d'avions à fuselage étroit seront les principaux moteurs de croissance. Les points clés comprennent :
- Croissance de la flotte commerciale mondiale de 3,2 % par an
- Augmentation de la flotte de fret aérien de deux tiers d'ici 2043
- L'Asie du Sud mène la croissance du trafic passagers à 7,4 %
- Les avions à fuselage étroit représentent 71 % de la flotte de 2043
- Demande de services commerciaux évaluée à 4,4 billions de dollars
- Besoin de 2,4 millions de nouveaux personnels aériens
Les prévisions reflètent la résilience et l'adaptabilité de l'industrie sur un marché dynamique, avec une demande de voyages aériens dépassant la croissance économique.
Boeing [NYSE: BA] erwartet einen Anstieg der Flugzeuglieferungen um 3% in den nächsten 20 Jahren, wobei die Fluggesellschaften bis 2043 fast 44.000 neue Verkehrsflugzeuge benötigen. Der Commercial Market Outlook 2024 (CMO) prognostiziert, dass aufstrebende Märkte und die globale Nachfrage nach einfacrh gebuchten Flugzeugen die Haupttreiber des Wachstums sein werden. Zu den wichtigsten Punkten gehören:
- Jährliches Wachstum der globalen Verkehrsflotte von 3,2%
- Anstieg der Frachtflotte bis 2043 um zwei Drittel
- Südasien führt das Wachstum des Passagierverkehrs mit 7,4% an
- Einfache Flugzeuge machen 71% der Flotte im Jahr 2043 aus
- Nachfrage nach kommerziellen Dienstleistungen im Wert von 4,4 Billionen Dollar
- Bedarf an 2,4 Millionen neuen Fachkräften in der Luftfahrt
Die Prognose spiegelt die Widerstandsfähigkeit und Anpassungsfähigkeit der Branche in einem dynamischen Markt wider, wobei die Nachfrage nach Flugreisen das Wirtschaftswachstum übertrifft.
- Projected 3% increase in airplane deliveries over the next 20 years
- Demand for nearly 44,000 new commercial airplanes by 2043
- Air traffic growth returned to long-term trend, with 4.7% annual growth expected
- Air cargo fleet projected to increase by two-thirds by 2043
- Commercial services demand valued at $4.4 trillion
- Need for 2.4 million new aviation personnel, indicating industry growth
- Ongoing supply chain and production constraints
- Slower growth of global commercial fleet (3.2% annually) compared to air traffic
Insights
Boeing's projection of nearly 44,000 new airplane deliveries over the next 20 years is a significant indicator of future revenue potential. This long-term forecast points to a robust recovery in the aviation sector post-pandemic.
The 3% annual growth in the global commercial fleet, paired with a 4.7% average annual increase in passenger air traffic, suggests that Boeing's market position will remain strong. These figures, especially in emerging markets like South Asia and Southeast Asia, are promising for investors looking for growth opportunities.
Additionally, the anticipated $4.4 trillion demand for commercial services highlights potential revenue streams beyond aircraft sales. This diversification into services could provide Boeing with more stable and recurring revenue, mitigating the risks associated with cyclical aircraft sales.
The forecast emphasizes several key trends that are relevant for investors: the significant growth in single-aisle airplanes and the increasing importance of emerging markets. The prediction that 71% of the fleet by 2043 will be single-aisle planes aligns with the ongoing shift towards more versatile and efficient aircraft suitable for short- to medium-haul routes.
Emerging markets like South Asia and Africa, with projected passenger traffic growth rates of 7.4% and 6.4% respectively, are particularly noteworthy. Investors should pay attention to Boeing's strategic moves in these regions, as they represent substantial growth opportunities.
The statement that the average global airline fare has remained steady over 20 years despite doubling consumer prices is intriguing. It signifies a highly competitive market environment where efficiency and cost management are crucial. This could benefit companies like Boeing that provide advanced, cost-effective solutions to airlines.
From a technology perspective, Boeing's focus on digital solutions to enhance efficiency and sustainability is an essential aspect of their growth strategy. The forecasted $4.4 trillion demand for commercial services, including maintenance and digital solutions, reflects the industry's shift towards leveraging technology to reduce operating costs and improve performance.
As the aviation sector increasingly prioritizes sustainability, Boeing's commitment to deploying efficient and sustainable solutions could enhance its competitive edge. This focus aligns with broader industry trends towards greener aviation practices, potentially positioning Boeing as a leader in this critical area.
Moreover, the projected demand for 2.4 million new personnel underscores the need for advanced training programs and technologies. Boeing's ability to provide comprehensive training and support services will be vital in addressing this demand, further embedding their influence in the industry.
FARNBOROUGH,
Air travel demand continues to outpace economic growth in an increasingly connected world. Four years after the pandemic grounded most of the global fleet, air traffic growth has returned to the long-term trend Boeing forecast 20 years ago. Compared to 2023, passenger air traffic will rise an average of
"This is a challenging and inspiring era for aviation. The return to more typical traffic growth shows how resilient our industry is, even as we all work through ongoing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges," said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing.
CMO forecast highlights through 2043:
- The global commercial fleet is projected to grow
3.2% annually, more slowly than air traffic as airlines continue to boost productivity by increasing load factors and using airplanes more hours per day. - The air cargo fleet, with speed and reliability, consistently outperforms other modes of transport and will increase by two-thirds by 2043, to support
4.1% annual air cargo traffic growth.
Air travel trends:
- The average global airline fare is about the same as it was 20 years ago, even as overall consumer prices doubled.
- The number of global routes served by commercial airlines has returned to 2019 levels, even though nearly
20% of them are new, illustrating the adaptability of aviation in a dynamic market.
Key growth drivers:
South Asia passenger traffic will increase7.4% , followed bySoutheast Asia (7.2% ) andAfrica (6.4% ), as emerging markets return to historical growth trends through the forecast period.- Eurasia is projected to lead all markets with the most airplane deliveries (
22% of total) withNorth America (20% ) andChina (20% ) close behind. - Single-aisle airplanes will make up
71% of the 2043 fleet after 33,380 new deliveries, serving short- to medium-haul routes with versatility. - The global widebody fleet will more than double, with twin-aisles comprising
44% of theMiddle East fleet.
Services on the rise:
- Boeing expects demand for commercial services valued at
$4.4 trillion - With air travel expansion especially in emerging markets, the commercial aviation industry will require nearly 2.4 million new personnel as well as training to support new pilots, maintenance technicians and cabin crew*.
"As airlines respond to robust passenger demand, the services market continues to expand, not only as a result of fleet growth, but also with an increased focus on reducing operating costs and deploying efficient and sustainable solutions," said Dan Abraham, senior vice president of Boeing Global Services Commercial Sales and Marketing.
New deliveries (2024-2043) | |
Regional Jet | 1,525 |
Single Aisle | 33,380 |
Widebody | 8,065 |
Freighter | 1,005 |
Total | 43,975 |
Boeing has published the CMO annually since 1961. As the longest-running forecast of its kind, the CMO is regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aviation industry. The complete outlook is available at: boeing.com/cmo.
*Boeing will release its complete Pilot and Technician Outlook on July 22
As a leading global aerospace company, Boeing develops, manufactures and services commercial airplanes, defense products and space systems for customers in more than 150 countries. As a top
Contact
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SOURCE Boeing
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