Boeing Forecasts Demand for Nearly 44,000 New Airplanes Through 2043 as Air Travel Surpasses Pre-Pandemic Levels

Rhea-AI Summary

Boeing [NYSE: BA] projects a 3% increase in airplane deliveries over the next 20 years, with carriers requiring nearly 44,000 new commercial airplanes by 2043. The 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) predicts emerging markets and global single-aisle market demand will be primary growth drivers. Key highlights include:

- Global commercial fleet growth of 3.2% annually
- Air cargo fleet increase by two-thirds by 2043
- South Asia leading passenger traffic growth at 7.4%
- Single-aisle airplanes making up 71% of the 2043 fleet
- Commercial services demand valued at $4.4 trillion
- Need for 2.4 million new aviation personnel

The forecast reflects the industry's resilience and adaptability in a dynamic market, with air travel demand outpacing economic growth.

Positive

• Projected 3% increase in airplane deliveries over the next 20 years
• Demand for nearly 44,000 new commercial airplanes by 2043
• Air traffic growth returned to long-term trend, with 4.7% annual growth expected
• Air cargo fleet projected to increase by two-thirds by 2043
• Commercial services demand valued at $4.4 trillion
• Need for 2.4 million new aviation personnel, indicating industry growth

Negative

• Ongoing supply chain and production constraints
• Slower growth of global commercial fleet (3.2% annually) compared to air traffic

Insights

Financial Analyst

Boeing's projection of nearly 44,000 new airplane deliveries over the next 20 years is a significant indicator of future revenue potential. This long-term forecast points to a robust recovery in the aviation sector post-pandemic.

The 3% annual growth in the global commercial fleet, paired with a 4.7% average annual increase in passenger air traffic, suggests that Boeing's market position will remain strong. These figures, especially in emerging markets like South Asia and Southeast Asia, are promising for investors looking for growth opportunities.

Additionally, the anticipated $4.4 trillion demand for commercial services highlights potential revenue streams beyond aircraft sales. This diversification into services could provide Boeing with more stable and recurring revenue, mitigating the risks associated with cyclical aircraft sales.

Market Research Analyst

The forecast emphasizes several key trends that are relevant for investors: the significant growth in single-aisle airplanes and the increasing importance of emerging markets. The prediction that 71% of the fleet by 2043 will be single-aisle planes aligns with the ongoing shift towards more versatile and efficient aircraft suitable for short- to medium-haul routes.

Emerging markets like South Asia and Africa, with projected passenger traffic growth rates of 7.4% and 6.4% respectively, are particularly noteworthy. Investors should pay attention to Boeing's strategic moves in these regions, as they represent substantial growth opportunities.

The statement that the average global airline fare has remained steady over 20 years despite doubling consumer prices is intriguing. It signifies a highly competitive market environment where efficiency and cost management are crucial. This could benefit companies like Boeing that provide advanced, cost-effective solutions to airlines.

Tech Expert

From a technology perspective, Boeing's focus on digital solutions to enhance efficiency and sustainability is an essential aspect of their growth strategy. The forecasted $4.4 trillion demand for commercial services, including maintenance and digital solutions, reflects the industry's shift towards leveraging technology to reduce operating costs and improve performance.

As the aviation sector increasingly prioritizes sustainability, Boeing's commitment to deploying efficient and sustainable solutions could enhance its competitive edge. This focus aligns with broader industry trends towards greener aviation practices, potentially positioning Boeing as a leader in this critical area.

Moreover, the projected demand for 2.4 million new personnel underscores the need for advanced training programs and technologies. Boeing's ability to provide comprehensive training and support services will be vital in addressing this demand, further embedding their influence in the industry.

FARNBOROUGH, United Kingdom, July 20, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- With air travel fully recovered and even surpassing pre-pandemic demand, Boeing [NYSE: BA] today projected a 3% increase in airplane deliveries over the next 20 years, with carriers requiring nearly 44,000 new commercial airplanes by 2043. Leading into the Farnborough International Airshow, Boeing released its 2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which also predicts emerging markets and global single-aisle market demand will remain primary growth drivers for the industry.

Air travel demand continues to outpace economic growth in an increasingly connected world. Four years after the pandemic grounded most of the global fleet, air traffic growth has returned to the long-term trend Boeing forecast 20 years ago. Compared to 2023, passenger air traffic will rise an average of 4.7% annually over the next two decades, according to the CMO.

"This is a challenging and inspiring era for aviation. The return to more typical traffic growth shows how resilient our industry is, even as we all work through ongoing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges," said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing.

CMO forecast highlights through 2043:

• The global commercial fleet is projected to grow 3.2% annually, more slowly than air traffic as airlines continue to boost productivity by increasing load factors and using airplanes more hours per day.
• The air cargo fleet, with speed and reliability, consistently outperforms other modes of transport and will increase by two-thirds by 2043, to support 4.1% annual air cargo traffic growth.

Air travel trends:

• The average global airline fare is about the same as it was 20 years ago, even as overall consumer prices doubled.
• The number of global routes served by commercial airlines has returned to 2019 levels, even though nearly 20% of them are new, illustrating the adaptability of aviation in a dynamic market.

Key growth drivers:

• South Asia passenger traffic will increase 7.4%, followed by Southeast Asia (7.2%) and Africa (6.4%), as emerging markets return to historical growth trends through the forecast period.
• Eurasia is projected to lead all markets with the most airplane deliveries (22% of total) with North America (20%) and China (20%) close behind.
• Single-aisle airplanes will make up 71% of the 2043 fleet after 33,380 new deliveries, serving short- to medium-haul routes with versatility.
• The global widebody fleet will more than double, with twin-aisles comprising 44% of the Middle East fleet.

Services on the rise:

• Boeing expects demand for commercial services valued at $4.4 trillion ─ driven by maintenance and modification options and digital solutions that increase efficiency.
• With air travel expansion especially in emerging markets, the commercial aviation industry will require nearly 2.4 million new personnel as well as training to support new pilots, maintenance technicians and cabin crew*.

"As airlines respond to robust passenger demand, the services market continues to expand, not only as a result of fleet growth, but also with an increased focus on reducing operating costs and deploying efficient and sustainable solutions," said Dan Abraham, senior vice president of Boeing Global Services Commercial Sales and Marketing.

New deliveries (2024-2043)
Regional Jet	1,525
Single Aisle	33,380
Widebody	8,065
Freighter	1,005
Total	43,975

Boeing has published the CMO annually since 1961. As the longest-running forecast of its kind, the CMO is regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aviation industry. The complete outlook is available at: boeing.com/cmo.

*Boeing will release its complete Pilot and Technician Outlook on July 22

As a leading global aerospace company, Boeing develops, manufactures and services commercial airplanes, defense products and space systems for customers in more than 150 countries. As a top U.S. exporter, the company leverages the talents of a global supplier base to advance economic opportunity, sustainability and community impact. Boeing's diverse team is committed to innovating for the future, leading with sustainability, and cultivating a culture based on the company's core values of safety, quality and integrity. Join our team and find your purpose at boeing.com/careers.

Contact

Boeing Media Relations
media@boeing.com

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/boeing-forecasts-demand-for-nearly-44-000-new-airplanes-through-2043-as-air-travel-surpasses-pre-pandemic-levels-302201945.html

SOURCE Boeing

FAQ

How many new airplanes does Boeing forecast will be needed by 2043?

Boeing forecasts a demand for nearly 44,000 new commercial airplanes by 2043.

What is the projected annual growth rate for passenger air traffic according to Boeing's 2024 CMO?

Boeing's 2024 Commercial Market Outlook projects passenger air traffic to rise an average of 4.7% annually over the next two decades.

Which regions are expected to lead in airplane deliveries according to Boeing's forecast?

According to Boeing's forecast, Eurasia is projected to lead with 22% of total airplane deliveries, followed by North America and China, each with 20%.

What percentage of the 2043 fleet will be single-aisle airplanes, according to Boeing's projection?

Boeing projects that single-aisle airplanes will make up 71% of the 2043 fleet after 33,380 new deliveries.

How much is the commercial services market expected to be worth according to Boeing's forecast?

Boeing expects demand for commercial services to be valued at $4.4 trillion through 2043.