Algoma Steel Provides Fiscal Third Quarter 2024 Guidance
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Insights
The guidance provided by Algoma Steel Group Inc. indicates a projected Adjusted EBITDA ranging from a $(10) million loss to breakeven for the fiscal third quarter. This forecast is critical for investors as EBITDA is a widely used profitability metric that excludes the effects of financing and accounting decisions. The expected shipment volume of 515,000 tons offers a tangible measure of the company's operational output, which can be compared to industry benchmarks to assess performance.
However, the negative Adjusted EBITDA guidance suggests operational challenges or market pressures, which could be a red flag for investors seeking growth and profitability. The mention of heavy seasonal maintenance and the impact of a UAW strike on demand and pricing provides context to the financial figures, potentially mitigating concerns by attributing the subdued performance to specific, possibly temporary, factors.
Investors will likely monitor the company's next steps, especially regarding the progress of the Electric Arc Furnace project. The commitment of 86% of the project's budget could signal confidence in the project's completion and future operational efficiency. The anticipated improvement in steel pricing and market fundamentals for the upcoming quarters could be a positive indicator for future financial health, but it remains speculative until realized in financial outcomes.
The steel industry is known for its cyclical nature, with prices influenced by a variety of factors including market demand, international trade policies and input costs. Algoma's report of recovering steel prices and improving market fundamentals post-strike suggests a potential upward trend in the steel market. This recovery could be indicative of broader economic trends, which may benefit other players in the sector as well.
For stakeholders, the state of the steel market is a bellwether for industrial activity and can have ripple effects across various sectors such as construction, automotive and manufacturing. Algoma's anticipation of stronger pricing and fundamentals aligns with the typical post-strike recovery seen in industrial markets. If this trend is sustained, it could lead to increased investor confidence not just in Algoma, but in the steel industry as a whole.
The focus on the Electric Arc Furnace project is also significant, as EAF technology is generally more cost-effective and environmentally friendly compared to traditional blast furnace methods. Algoma's commitment to this project could enhance its competitive edge in terms of production costs and sustainability, which are increasingly important factors for investors and customers alike.
SAULT STE. MARIE, Ontario, Jan. 03, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL; TSX: ASTL) (“Algoma” or “the Company”), a leading Canadian producer of hot and cold rolled steel sheet and plate products, today provided guidance for its fiscal third quarter ending December 31, 2023. Unless otherwise specified, all amounts are in Canadian dollars.
Fiscal 2024 third quarter total steel shipments are expected to be around 515,000 tons and Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of
Michael Garcia, Algoma’s Chief Executive Officer commented, “Our operations ran in line with our expectations during the fiscal third quarter, with a heavy focus on seasonal maintenance that included completion of our annual basic oxygen furnace relining and other servicing across the steelworks. Due to the lagging nature of our order book, UAW strike-driven soft demand and pricing in the previous quarter and through October impacted our fiscal third quarter results. Progress on our Electric Arc Furnace (“EAF”) project continued pace and on budget, and at quarter-end we had committed and priced approximately
“In October, steel pricing began to recover in anticipation of a strike settlement, and since the strike’s end pricing has continued to improve, currently sitting near 12-month highs. We expect this pricing strength, coupled with continued solid market fundamentals, to drive significantly improved realized pricing and overall fiscal results starting with our fiscal fourth quarter,” Mr. Garcia concluded.
About Algoma Steel Inc.
Based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada, Algoma is a fully integrated producer of hot and cold rolled steel products including sheet and plate. Driven by a purpose to build better lives and a greener future, Algoma is positioned to deliver responsive, customer-driven product solutions to applications in the automotive, construction, energy, defense, and manufacturing sectors. Algoma is a key supplier of steel products to customers in North America and is the only producer of discrete plate products in Canada. Its state-of-the-art Direct Strip Production Complex (“DSPC”) is one of the lowest-cost producers of hot rolled sheet steel (HRC) in North America.
Algoma is on a transformation journey, modernizing its plate mill and adopting electric arc technology that builds on the strong principles of recycling and environmental stewardship to significantly lower carbon emissions. Today Algoma is investing in its people and processes, working safely, as a team to become one of North America’s leading producers of green steel.
As a founding industry in their community, Algoma is drawing on the best of its rich steelmaking tradition to deliver greater value, offering North America the comfort of a secure steel supply and a sustainable future as your partner in steel.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This news release contains “forward-looking information” under applicable Canadian securities legislation and “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (collectively, “forward-looking statements”), including statements regarding expected steel shipments in the fiscal 2024 third quarter, the range of Adjusted EBITDA, realized pricing and overall fiscal results of the Company in the 2024 fiscal fourth quarter, the supply of raw materials and other key inputs in the steelmaking process, Algoma’s transition to EAF steelmaking, including the progress, budget, costs and timing of completion of the Company’s EAF project, Algoma’s future as a leading producer of green steel, Algoma’s modernization of its plate mill facilities, transformation journey, ability to deliver greater and long-term value, ability to offer North America a secure steel supply and a sustainable future, and investment in its people, and processes, plans or future financial or operating performance. These forward-looking statements generally are identified by the words “believe,” “project,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “intend,” “strategy,” “future,” “opportunity,” “plan,” “design,” “pipeline,” “may,” “should,” “will,” “would,” “will be,” “will continue,” “will likely result,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are predictions, projections and other statements about future events that are based on current expectations and assumptions. Many factors could cause actual future events to differ materially from the forward-looking statements in this document. Readers should also consider the other risks and uncertainties set forth in the section entitled “Risk Factors” and “Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Information” in Algoma’s Annual Information Form, filed by Algoma with applicable Canadian securities regulatory authorities (available under the company’s SEDAR+ profile at www.sedarplus.ca) and with the SEC, as part of Algoma’s Annual Report on Form 40-F (available at www.sec.gov), as well as in Algoma’s current reports with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities and SEC. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements, and Algoma assumes no obligation and does not intend to update or revise these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
Non-IFRS Financial Measures
To supplement our financial statements, which are prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (“IFRS”), we use certain non-IFRS measures to evaluate the performance of Algoma. These terms do not have any standardized meaning prescribed within IFRS and, therefore, may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. Rather, these measures are provided as additional information to complement those IFRS measures by providing a further understanding of our financial performance from management’s perspective. Accordingly, they should not be considered in isolation nor as a substitute for analysis of our financial information reported under IFRS.
Adjusted EBITDA, as we define it, refers to net (loss) income before amortization of property, plant, equipment and amortization of intangible assets, finance costs, interest on pension and other post-employment benefit obligations, income taxes, restructuring costs, impairment reserve, foreign exchange gain, finance income, inventory write-downs, carbon tax, changes in fair value of warrant, earnout and share-based compensation liabilities, transaction costs, share-based compensation, and past service costs related to pension benefits and post-employment benefits. Adjusted EBITDA margin is calculated by dividing Adjusted EBITDA by revenue for the corresponding period. Adjusted EBITDA is not intended to represent cash flow from operations, as defined by IFRS, and should not be considered as alternatives to net earnings, cash flow from operations, or any other measure of performance prescribed by IFRS. Adjusted EBITDA, as we define and use it, may not be comparable to Adjusted EBITDA as defined and used by other companies. We consider Adjusted EBITDA to be a meaningful measure to assess our operating performance in addition to IFRS measures. It is included because we believe it can be useful in measuring our operating performance and our ability to expand our business and provide management and investors with additional information for comparison of our operating results across different time periods and to the operating results of other companies. Adjusted EBITDA is also used by analysts and our lenders as a measure of our financial performance. In addition, we consider Adjusted EBITDA margin to be a useful measure of our operating performance and profitability across different time periods that enhance the comparability of our results. However, these measures have limitations as analytical tools and should not be considered in isolation from, or as alternatives to, net income, cash flow from operations or other data prepared in accordance with IFRS. Because of these limitations, such measures should not be considered as measures of discretionary cash available to invest in business growth or to reduce indebtedness. We compensate for these limitations by relying primarily on our IFRS results using such measures only as supplements to such results. See the financial tables below for a reconciliation of the non-IFRS financial measures reported herein.
For more information, please contact:
Michael Moraca
Treasurer & Investor Relations Officer
Algoma Steel Group Inc.
Phone: 705.945.3300
E-mail: IR@algoma.com
FAQ
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