Assured Guaranty Ltd. Reports Results for Third Quarter 2022

Rhea-AI Summary

Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported a net income of $11 million for Q3 2022, equivalent to $0.18 per share, a decrease from Q3 2021. This decline resulted from $72 million in foreign exchange losses and $40 million in credit derivative adjustments. The company’s adjusted operating income was $133 million, up 369% year-over-year. Shareholders’ equity per share fell to $81.17, down from $93.19 in December 2021, mainly due to rising interest rates impacting the investment portfolio. Notably, $113 million was returned to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.

Positive

• Adjusted operating income was $133 million, a 369% increase year-over-year.
• Strong new business production with gross written premiums of $94 million and a present value of new business production of $95 million.
• Returned $113 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

Negative

• Net income decreased to $11 million from $17 million year-over-year.
• Shareholders' equity per share decreased to $81.17 from $93.19 due to unrealized investment losses from rising interest rates.
• Insurance segment adjusted operating income fell to $159 million from $214 million year-over-year.

• GAAP Highlights:
  • Net income attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. was $11 million, or $0.18 per share⁽¹⁾, for third quarter 2022, which includes after-tax losses of: $72 million related to foreign exchange remeasurement, and $40 million of fair value adjustments on credit derivatives.
  • Shareholders’ equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. per share was $81.17 as of September 30, 2022.
• Non-GAAP Highlights:
  • Adjusted operating income⁽²⁾ was $133 million, or $2.11 per share, for third quarter 2022.
  • Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity⁽²⁾ per share and adjusted book value (ABV)⁽²⁾ per share were $91.82 and $137.87, respectively, as of September 30, 2022.
• Return of Capital to Shareholders:
  • Third quarter 2022 capital returned to shareholders was $113 million, consisting of the repurchase of 1.8 million shares for $97 million, and dividends of $16 million.
  • As of September 30, 2022, 60.7 million common shares were outstanding.
• Insurance Segment:
  • Insurance segment adjusted operating income was $159 million for third quarter 2022.
  • Gross written premiums (GWP) were $94 million for third quarter 2022.
  • Present value of new business production (PVP)⁽²⁾ was $95 million for third quarter 2022.
• Asset Management Segment:
  • Asset Management segment adjusted operating loss was $3 million for third quarter 2022.

HAMILTON, Bermuda--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) (AGL and, together with its consolidated entities, Assured Guaranty or the Company) announced today its financial results for the three-month period ended September 30, 2022 (third quarter 2022).

“Assured Guaranty performed well during the third quarter of 2022. New business production continued to be strong, with $94 million of gross written premiums and $95 million of PVP. Gross written premiums and PVP were driven mainly by our best third-quarter PVP in international public finance and our second-best third-quarter PVP in U.S. public finance in more than a decade. While GAAP net income per share was 18% lower in third quarter 2022 primarily due to foreign exchange remeasurement and fair value adjustments on credit derivatives, adjusted operating income per share was 369% higher than in third quarter 2021,” said President and CEO Dominic Frederico.

“In U.S. public finance, we saw strong demand for Assured Guaranty’s secondary market bond insurance where we wrote more insured par than in any first nine-month period of the last decade. Our $2.2 billion of secondary insured par totaled more than 11 times that of the same period last year.

“While rising interest rates and the resulting unrealized losses in the investment portfolio resulted in a decrease in our shareholders’ equity per share, our other principal measures of shareholder value, adjusted operating shareholders’ equity per share and adjusted book value per share, both increased since the beginning of the year.

“In our share repurchase program during the first three quarters of 2022, we repurchased over 7.1 million shares, representing more than 10% of our total shares outstanding on December 31, 2021.”

(1)		Per share information for net income and adjusted operating income is based on diluted shares.
(2)		Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures.”

Summary Financial Results
(in millions, except per share amounts)
	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
		2022				2021
GAAP
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL	$	11			$	17
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL per diluted share	$	0.18			$	0.22
Weighted average diluted shares		62.9				73.6
Non-GAAP
Adjusted operating income (loss) (1)	$	133			$	34
Adjusted operating income per diluted share (1)	$	2.11			$	0.45
Weighted average diluted shares		62.9				73.6
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE and CIV consolidation(2) included in adjusted operating income	$	7			$	(4	)
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE and CIV consolidation included in adjusted operating income per share	$	0.12			$	(0.06	)
Components of total adjusted operating income (loss)
Insurance segment	$	159			$	214
Asset Management segment		(3	)			(7	)
Corporate division		(30	)			(169	)
Other		7				(4	)
Adjusted operating income (loss)	$	133			$	34

	As of
	September 30, 2022						December 31, 2021
	Amount			Per Share			Amount			Per Share
Shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL	$	4,929		$	81.17		$	6,292		$	93.19
Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity (1)		5,575			91.82			5,991			88.73
ABV (1)		8,371			137.87			8,823			130.67
Common Shares Outstanding		60.7						67.5

(1)		Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.
(2)		The effect of consolidating financial guaranty (FG) variable interest entities (VIEs) (FG VIEs) and consolidated investment vehicles (CIVs).

On a per share basis, shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL was $81.17 as of September 30, 2022, which was lower than shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL of $93.19 as of December 31, 2021, primarily due to unrealized losses on the investment portfolio caused largely by rising interest rates.

On a per share basis, adjusted operating shareholders’ equity increased to $91.82 as of September 30, 2022, from $88.73 as of December 31, 2021, and ABV increased to $137.87 as of September 30, 2022 from $130.67 as of December 31, 2021, primarily due to the accretive effect of the share repurchase program, and in the case of ABV, net premiums written and favorable loss development. See “Common Share Repurchases” on page 10.

Insurance Segment

The Insurance segment primarily consists of the Company's insurance subsidiaries that provide credit protection products to the United States (U.S.) and non-U.S. public finance (including infrastructure) and structured finance markets.

Insurance Segment Results
(in millions)
	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
		2022				2021
Segment revenues
Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues	$	92			$	114
Net investment income		69				69
Fair value gains (losses) on trading securities		(8	)			—
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement and other income (loss)		(6	)			7
Total segment revenues		147				190
Segment expenses
Loss expense (benefit)		(75	)			(78	)
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs (DAC)		4				3
Employee compensation and benefit expenses		34				35
Other operating expenses		21				18
Total segment expenses		(16	)			(22	)
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees		(11	)			33
Segment adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes		152				245
Less: Provision (benefit) for income taxes		(7	)			31
Segment adjusted operating income (loss)	$	159			$	214

Insurance segment adjusted operating income was $159 million in third quarter 2022 compared with $214 million in the three-month period ended September 30, 2021 (third quarter 2021). The variance was primarily due to lower net asset values for alternative investments reported in “equity in earnings (losses) of investees” and lower net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues, as shown in the table above. The components of premiums, losses and income from the investment portfolio are presented below.

Insurance Segment Net Earned Premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues

Insurance Segment
Net Earned Premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues
(in millions)
	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
		2022			2021
Scheduled net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues	$	80		$	99
Accelerations		12			15
Total	$	92		$	114

Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues in third quarter 2022 were lower than third quarter 2021 primarily due to net earned premiums of $13 million on certain transactions in third quarter 2021 that did not recur, and lower accelerations and updates to debt service assumptions in third quarter 2022.

Insurance Segment Loss Expense (Benefit) and the Rollforward of Expected Losses

Insurance Segment
Loss Expense (Benefit)
(in millions)
	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
		2022				2021
Public finance	$	4			$	(23	)
U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)		(82	)			(58	)
Other structured finance		3				3
Total	$	(75	)		$	(78	)

Loss expense is a function of economic loss development (benefit), as well as the amortization of deferred premium revenue. Third quarter 2022 loss development (benefit) is presented in the table below.

 

Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)(1)
(in millions)
	Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of June 30, 2022			Economic Loss Development (Benefit)				Net (Paid) Recovered Losses(2)				Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered) as of September 30, 2022
Public finance	$	217		$	22			$	393			$	632
U.S. RMBS		179			(95	)			(32	)			52
Other structured finance		46			1				(4	)			43
Total	$	442		$	(72	)		$	357			$	727

(1)		Economic loss development (benefit) represents the change in net expected loss to be paid (recovered) attributable to the effects of changes in the economic performance of insured transactions, changes in assumptions based on observed market trends, changes in discount rates, accretion of discount and the economic effects of loss mitigation efforts, each net of reinsurance. Economic loss development (benefit) is the principal measure that the Company uses to evaluate the loss experience in its insured portfolio. Expected loss to be paid (recovered) includes all transactions insured by the Company, whether written in insurance or credit derivative form, regardless of the accounting model prescribed under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP), and without consideration of unearned premium reserves.
(2)		Includes recoveries received in the form of contingent value instruments in third quarter 2022 as part of the Puerto Rico resolutions and plan support agreements.

The economic benefit in U.S. RMBS in third quarter 2022 was $95 million, which was mainly attributable to the purchase of a loss mitigation security, updates in the projected conditional default rate curves on second lien transactions, a benefit on certain assumed RMBS transactions related to a settlement between a ceding company and a representation and warranty provider, improved performance in certain transactions, and higher recoveries for secured second lien charged-off loans.

In third quarter 2022, the effect of higher risk-free rates used to discount expected losses was a benefit of $25 million across all sectors.

Insurance Segment Income from Investment Portfolio

Insurance Segment
Income from Investment Portfolio
(in millions)
	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
		2022				2021
Net investment income	$	69			$	69
Fair value gains (losses) on trading securities		(8	)			—
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees:
AssuredIM Funds (1)		9				23
Other alternative investments		(20	)			10
Total	$	50			$	102

(1)

Funds managed by Assured Investment Management LLC (AssuredIM LLC) and its investment management affiliates (together with AssuredIM LLC, AssuredIM).

Net investment income from the available-for-sale portfolio in third quarter 2022 was consistent with third quarter 2021.

Contingent value instruments issued by Puerto Rico that were received in the first and third quarters of 2022 as part of the Puerto Rico resolutions and plan support agreements are classified as trading securities with changes in fair value reported in the consolidated statements of operations. Fair value losses on trading securities were $8 million in third quarter 2022.

In the Insurance segment, investments in AssuredIM Funds are recorded at net asset value (NAV), with the change in NAV reported in “equity in earnings (losses) of investees.” The AssuredIM Funds include healthcare, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), municipal bond and asset-based funds. Equity in earnings of AssuredIM Funds in third quarter 2022 was a gain primarily attributable to fair value gains in the assets held in the CLO fund. Equity in earnings of AssuredIM Funds in third quarter 2021 was a gain mainly attributable to an overall increase in the NAV of the healthcare and CLO funds. As of September 30, 2022, the Insurance segment had invested $574 million (at fair value) in AssuredIM Funds. Inception-to-date realized and unrealized gains on AssuredIM Funds as of September 30, 2022 totaled $107 million.

Equity in earnings (losses) of investees also includes the Company's interests in other alternative investments, which reported a loss in third quarter 2022, primarily attributable to a private equity fund, compared with a gain in third quarter 2021.

To the extent that the amounts invested in AssuredIM Funds and other alternative investments increase and available-for-sale fixed-maturity securities decrease, net investment income may decline and mark-to-market volatility may increase.

Insurance Segment New Business Production

PVP, a non-GAAP financial measure, measures the value of the Insurance segment’s new business production and includes upfront premiums and the present value of expected future installments on new business at the time of issuance, for all contracts regardless of form or GAAP accounting model. See “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.

Insurance Segment
New Business Production
(in millions)
	Quarter Ended September 30,
	2022										2021
	GWP				PVP (1)			Gross Par Written (1)			GWP			PVP (1)			Gross Par Written (1)
Public finance - U.S.	$	54			$	57		$	3,622		$	52		$	55		$	7,703
Public finance - non-U.S.		44				37			194			21			17			156
Structured finance - U.S.		(2	)			1			30			29			21			436
Structured finance - non-U.S.		(2	)			—			—			4			3			266
Total	$	94			$	95		$	3,846		$	106		$	96		$	8,561

(1)

PVP and Gross Par Written in the table above are based on “close date,” when the transaction settles.

U.S. public finance GWP and PVP in third quarter 2022 was higher than the comparable GWP and PVP in third quarter 2021, primarily due to a large transportation revenue transaction in third quarter 2022 and a higher proportion of secondary market business which generally carries a higher premium rate.

In the U.S. public finance primary market, which had lower new issuance in third quarter 2022 compared with third quarter 2021, the ratio of PVP to par written was higher as the coupon on insured transactions increased due to the higher interest rate environment.

The average rating of U.S. public finance par written was A- in both third quarter 2022 and third quarter 2021. The Company’s direct par written in the primary market represented 56% of the total U.S. municipal market insured issuance in third quarter 2022, compared with 64% in third quarter 2021, and the Company’s penetration of all municipal issuance was 3.2% in third quarter 2022 compared with 5.4% in third quarter 2021.

In third quarter 2022, non-U.S. public finance GWP and PVP were primarily attributable to a secondary market guarantee of a portfolio of regulated utilities.

Asset Management Segment

Asset Management Segment Results
(in millions)
	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
		2022				2021
Segment revenues
Management fees:
CLOs (1)	$	12			$	12
Opportunity funds and liquid strategies		6				4
Wind-down funds		—				1
Total management fees		18				17
Performance fees		2				—
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement and other income (loss)		1				2
Total segment revenues		21				19
Segment expenses
Employee compensation and benefit expenses		16				19
Other operating expenses (2)		8				10
Total segment expenses		24				29
Segment adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes		(3	)			(10	)
Less: Provision (benefit) for income taxes		—				(3	)
Segment adjusted operating income (loss)	$	(3	)		$	(7	)

(1)		CLO fees are the net management fees that AssuredIM retains after rebating the portion of these fees that pertains to the CLO equity that is held directly by AssuredIM Funds.
(2)		Includes amortization of intangible assets of $2 million and $3 million in third quarter 2022 and third quarter 2021, respectively.

Management fees from opportunity funds increased primarily due to higher third-party assets under management (AUM) in healthcare funds. Fees from the wind-down funds decreased as distributions to investors continued. As of September 30, 2022, AUM of the wind-down funds was $0.2 billion, compared with $0.8 billion as of September 30, 2021, and $0.6 billion as of December 31, 2021.

Roll Forward of Assets Under Management
(in millions)
	CLOs (1)				Opportunity Funds (2)				Liquid Strategies				Wind-Down Funds				Total
AUM, June 30, 2022	$	15,176			$	2,050			$	372			$	339			$	17,937
Inflows-third party		—				1				—				—				1
Inflows-intercompany		115				—				1				—				116
Outflows:
Redemptions		—				—				—				—				—
Distributions		(154	)			(47	)			—				(114	)			(315	)
Total outflows		(154	)			(47	)			—				(114	)			(315	)
Net flows		(39	)			(46	)			1				(114	)			(198	)
Change in value		(186	)			14				(6	)			(17	)			(195	)
AUM, September 30, 2022	$	14,951			$	2,018			$	367			$	208			$	17,544

(1)		CLOs inflows and outflows include $105 million related to the transfer of assets between two CLO funds.
(2)		Distributions from opportunity funds include $41 million related to the AssuredIM Funds created prior to the acquisition of BlueMountain Capital Management, LLC (now known as AssuredIM LLC). As of September 30, 2022, AUM related to these funds was $74 million.

Components of Assets Under Management (1)
(in millions)
	As of
	September 30, 2022			June 30, 2022
Funded AUM	$	16,714		$	17,046
Unfunded AUM		830			891
Fee-earning AUM	$	16,818		$	17,148
Non-fee earning AUM		726			789
Intercompany AUM
Funded AUM (2)	$	1,112		$	1,100
Unfunded AUM		218			241

(1)		Please see “Definitions” at the end of this press release.
(2)		Includes assets managed by AssuredIM under an Investment Management Agreement with its insurance affiliates of $537 million in investment-grade CLO and liquid municipal strategies as of September 30, 2022 and of $548 million as of June 30, 2022.

Corporate Division

The Corporate division primarily consists of interest expense on the debt of Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. (AGUS) and Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. (AGMH), as well as other operating expenses attributed to holding company activities. Adjusted operating loss for the Corporate division was $30 million in third quarter 2022 compared with $169 million in third quarter 2021. The Corporate division loss in third quarter 2021 was primarily due to the loss on extinguishment of debt of $175 million on a pre-tax basis ($138 million after-tax) associated with the redemption of AGMH and AGUS debt, which represented the difference between the amount paid to redeem the debt and the carrying value of the debt. The loss on extinguishment of debt primarily consisted of a $156 million acceleration of unamortized fair value adjustments that were originally recorded upon the acquisition of AGMH in 2009, and a $19 million make-whole payment associated with the redemption of $170 million of AGUS 5% Senior Notes.

Other (Effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation)

The effect of consolidating FG VIEs and CIVs was a gain of $7 million in third quarter 2022 compared with a loss of $4 million in third quarter 2021.

Reconciliation to GAAP

The following table presents a reconciliation of net income (loss) attributable to AGL to adjusted operating income (loss).

Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to
Adjusted Operating Income (Loss)
(in millions, except per share amounts)
	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
	2022								2021
	Total				Per Diluted Share				Total				Per Diluted Share
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL	$	11			$	0.18			$	17			$	0.22
Less pre-tax adjustments:
Realized gains (losses) on investments		(14	)			(0.22	)			3				0.04
Non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives		(49	)			(0.78	)			9				0.12
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities (CCS)		1				0.02				(3	)			(0.05	)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and loss adjustment expense (LAE) reserves		(78	)			(1.25	)			(27	)			(0.36	)
Total pre-tax adjustments		(140	)			(2.23	)			(18	)			(0.25	)
Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments		18				0.30				1				0.02
Adjusted operating income (loss)	$	133			$	2.11			$	34			$	0.45
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE and CIV consolidation included in adjusted operating income	$	7			$	0.12			$	(4	)		$	(0.06	)

Non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value losses on credit derivatives in third quarter 2022 were generated primarily as a result of wider asset spreads and a tightening of Assured Guaranty Corp. spreads. In third quarter 2021, non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value gains on credit derivatives were mainly attributable to the termination of several credit default swap policies, including several trust preferred securities transactions and one RMBS transaction. Except for underlying credit impairment, which is recognized as loss expense in the Insurance segment, the fair value adjustments on credit derivatives in the insured portfolio are non-economic adjustments that reverse to zero over the remaining term of that portfolio.

Fair value of CCS is heavily affected by, and in part fluctuates with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

Foreign exchange gains (losses) in both periods primarily relate to remeasurement of premiums receivable and are mainly due to changes in the exchange rate of the pound sterling and euro relative to the U.S. dollar.

Common Share Repurchases

Summary of Share Repurchases
(in millions, except per share amounts)
	Amount			Number of Shares		Average Price Per Share
2022 (January 1 - March 31)	$	155		2.738		$	56.62
2022 (April 1 - June 30)		151		2.606			58.03
2022 (July 1 - September 30, 2022)		97		1.790			53.77
2022 (October 1 - November 7)		42		0.786			53.99
Total 2022	$	445		7.920			56.18

From 2013 through November 7, 2022, the Company repurchased a total of 140 million common shares at an average price of $32.89, representing approximately 72% of the total shares outstanding at the beginning of the repurchase program in 2013. As of November 7, 2022, the Company was authorized to purchase $261 million of its common shares. These repurchases can be made from time to time in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions.

The timing, form and amount of the share repurchases under the program are at the discretion of management and will depend on a variety of factors, including funds available at the parent company, other potential uses for such funds, market conditions, the Company's capital position, legal requirements and other factors. The repurchase program may be modified, extended or terminated by the Board of Directors at any time. It does not have an expiration date.

Financial Statements

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)
(in millions)
	Quarter Ended
	September 30,
		2022				2021
Revenues
Net earned premiums	$	89			$	102
Net investment income		67				66
Asset management fees		16				20
Net realized investment gains (losses)		(14	)			3
Fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives		(48	)			21
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS		1				(3	)
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs		11				5
Fair value gains (losses) on CIVs		8				16
Foreign exchange gain (loss) on remeasurement		(80	)			(27	)
Fair value gains (losses) on trading securities		(8	)			—
Other income (loss)		(1	)			9
Total revenues		41				212
Expenses
Loss and LAE (benefit)		(75	)			(68	)
Interest expense		20				23
Loss on extinguishment of debt		—				175
Amortization of DAC		4				3
Employee compensation and benefit expenses		57				59
Other operating expenses		37				38
Total expenses		43				230
Income (loss) before income taxes and equity in earnings (losses) of investees		(2	)			(18	)
Equity in earnings (losses) of investees		(20	)			23
Income (loss) before income taxes		(22	)			5
Less: Provision (benefit) for income taxes		(27	)			(15	)
Net income (loss)		5				20
Less: Noncontrolling interests		(6	)			3
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL	$	11			$	17

Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)
(in millions)
	As of
	September 30, 2022				December 31, 2021
Assets
Investments:
Fixed-maturity securities available-for-sale, at fair value	$	6,780			$	8,202
Fixed-maturity securities, trading, at fair value		393				—
Short-term investments, at fair value		1,177				1,225
Other invested assets		130				181
Total investments		8,480				9,608
Cash		131				120
Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable		1,178				1,372
DAC		142				131
Salvage and subrogation recoverable		385				801
FG VIEs’ assets, at fair value		236				260
Assets of CIVs		5,336				5,271
Goodwill and other intangible assets		166				175
Other assets		606				470
Total assets	$	16,660			$	18,208
Liabilities
Unearned premium reserve	$	3,596			$	3,716
Loss and LAE reserve		882				869
Long-term debt		1,675				1,673
Credit derivative liabilities, at fair value		195				156
FG VIEs’ liabilities, at fair value		251				289
Liabilities of CIVs		4,447				4,436
Other liabilities		440				569
Total liabilities		11,486				11,708
Redeemable noncontrolling interests		21				22
Shareholders’ equity
Common shares		1				1
Retained earnings		5,579				5,990
Accumulated other comprehensive income		(652	)			300
Deferred equity compensation		1				1
Total shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL		4,929				6,292
Nonredeemable noncontrolling interests		224				186
Total shareholders’ equity		5,153				6,478
Total liabilities, redeemable noncontrolling interests and shareholders’ equity	$	16,660			$	18,208

Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

The Company discloses both (a) financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP and (b) financial measures not determined in accordance with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures).

Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be considered substitutes for GAAP financial measures. The primary limitation of non-GAAP financial measures is the potential lack of comparability to financial measures of other companies, whose definitions of non-GAAP financial measures may differ from those of the Company.

The Company believes its presentation of non-GAAP financial measures provides information that is necessary for analysts to calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty’s financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and for investors, analysts and the financial news media to evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results.

GAAP requires the Company to consolidate entities where it is deemed to be the primary beneficiary which include:

• FG VIEs, which the Company does not own and where its exposure is limited to its obligation under the financial guaranty insurance contract, and
• CIVs in which certain subsidiaries invest and which are managed by AssuredIM.

The Company discloses the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation that is embedded in each non-GAAP financial measure, as applicable. The Company believes this information may also be useful to analysts and investors evaluating Assured Guaranty’s financial results. In the case of both the consolidated FG VIEs and the CIVs, the economic effect on the Company of each of the consolidated FG VIEs and CIVs is reflected primarily in the results of the Insurance segment.

Management of the Company and AGL’s Board of Directors use non-GAAP financial measures further adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation (which the Company refers to as its core financial measures), as well as GAAP financial measures and other factors, to evaluate the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and progress towards long-term goals. The Company uses core financial measures in its decision-making process for and in its calculation of certain components of management compensation. The financial measures that the Company uses to help determine compensation are: (1) adjusted operating income, further adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation; (2) adjusted operating shareholders’ equity, further adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation; (3) adjusted book value per share, further adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation; (4) PVP; and (5) gross third-party assets raised.

Management believes that many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use adjusted operating shareholders’ equity and/or adjusted book value, each further adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation, as the principal financial measures for valuing AGL’s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell AGL’s common shares. Management also believes that many of the Company’s fixed income investors also use adjusted operating shareholders’ equity, further adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation, to evaluate the Company’s capital adequacy.

Adjusted operating income, further adjusted for the effect of FG VIE and CIV consolidation enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company’s financial results in comparison with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases.

The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. To the extent there is a directly comparable GAAP financial measure, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is presented below.

Adjusted Operating Income

Management believes that adjusted operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the operating results of the Company. Adjusted operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of realized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company’s discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company’s tax and capital profile.

2) Elimination of non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives that are recognized in net income, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, the Company’s credit spreads, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

3) Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS that are recognized in net income. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company’s credit spreads, price indications on the Company’s publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

4) Elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of net premium receivables and loss and LAE reserves that are recognized in net income. Long-dated receivables and loss and LAE reserves represent the present value of future contractual or expected cash flows. Therefore, the current period’s foreign exchange remeasurement gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.

5) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

See “Reconciliation to GAAP” above for a reconciliation of net income (loss) attributable to AGL to adjusted operating income (loss).

Adjusted Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Adjusted Book Value

Management believes that adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it excludes the fair value adjustments on investments, credit derivatives and CCS that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss.

Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is defined as shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

2) Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company’s credit spreads, price indications on the Company’s publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

3) Elimination of unrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore would not recognize an economic gain or loss.

4) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Management uses adjusted book value, further adjusted for FG VIE and CIV consolidation, to measure the intrinsic value of the Company, excluding franchise value. Adjusted book value per share, further adjusted for FG VIE and CIV consolidation (core adjusted book value), is one of the key financial measures used in determining the amount of certain long-term compensation elements to management and employees and used by rating agencies and investors. Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the Company’s in-force premiums and revenues net of expected losses. Adjusted book value is adjusted operating shareholders’ equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of deferred acquisition costs, net. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods.

2) Addition of the net present value of estimated net future revenue. See below.

3) Addition of the deferred premium revenue on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the present value of the expected future net earned premiums, net of the present value of expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.

4) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

The unearned premiums and revenues included in adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors.

Reconciliation of GAAP Shareholders’ Equity attributable to AGL to
Adjusted Operating Shareholders’ Equity and ABV
(in millions, except per share amounts)
	As of
	September 30, 2022								December 31, 2021
	Total				Per Share				Total				Per Share
Shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL	$	4,929			$	81.17			$	6,292			$	93.19
Less pre-tax adjustments:
Non-credit impairment-related unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives		(101	)			(1.66	)			(54	)			(0.80	)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS		35				0.58				23				0.34
Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect		(672	)			(11.07	)			404				5.99
Less taxes		92				1.50				(72	)			(1.07	)
Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity		5,575				91.82				5,991				88.73
Pre-tax adjustments:
Less: DAC		142				2.33				131				1.95
Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue		159				2.62				160				2.37
Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed		3,373				55.54				3,402				50.40
Plus taxes		(594	)			(9.78	)			(599	)			(8.88	)
ABV	$	8,371			$	137.87			$	8,823			$	130.67
Gain (loss) related to FG VIE and CIV consolidation included in:
Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity	$	27			$	0.44			$	32			$	0.47
ABV		16				0.27				23				0.34
Shares outstanding at the end of the period		60.7								67.5

Net Present Value of Estimated Net Future Revenue

Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the present value of estimated net future revenue for non-financial guaranty insurance contracts. This amount represents the net present value of estimated future revenue from these contracts (other than credit derivatives with net expected losses), net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes.

Future installment premiums are discounted at the approximate average pre-tax book yield of fixed-maturity securities purchased during the prior calendar year, other than loss mitigation securities. The discount rate is recalculated annually and updated as necessary. Net present value of estimated future revenue for an obligation may change from period to period due to a change in the discount rate or due to a change in estimated net future revenue for the obligation, which may change due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure.

PVP or Present Value of New Business Production

Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production in the Insurance segment by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as additional installment premiums and fees on existing contracts (which may result from supplements or fees or from the issuer not calling an insured obligation the Company projected would be called), regardless of form, which management believes GAAP gross written premiums and changes in fair value of credit derivatives do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums.

Future installment premiums are discounted at the approximate average pre-tax book yield of fixed-maturity securities purchased during the prior calendar year, other than certain fixed-maturity securities such as loss mitigation securities. The discount rate is recalculated annually and updated as necessary. Under GAAP, financial guaranty installment premiums are discounted at a risk-free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction.

Actual installment premiums may differ from those estimated in the Company’s PVP calculation due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.

Reconciliation of GWP to PVP
(in millions)
		Quarter Ended
		September 30, 2022
		Public Finance						Structured Finance
		U.S.			Non - U.S.			U.S.				Non - U.S.				Total
GWP		$	54		$	44		$	(2	)		$	(2	)		$	94
Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(1)			—			44			(3	)			(2	)			39
Upfront GWP			54			—			1				—				55
Plus: Installment premiums and other(2)			3			37			—				—				40
PVP		$	57		$	37		$	1			$	—			$	95

		Quarter Ended
		September 30, 2021
		Public Finance								Structured Finance
		U.S.				Non - U.S.				U.S.			Non - U.S.			Total
GWP		$	52			$	21			$	29		$	4		$	106
Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(1)			(1	)			22				27			4			52
Upfront GWP			53				(1	)			2			—			54
Plus: Installment premiums and other(2)			2				18				19			3			42
PVP		$	55			$	17			$	21		$	3		$	96

(1)		Includes the present value of new business on installment policies discounted at the prescribed GAAP discount rates, GWP adjustments on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions and other GAAP adjustments.
(2)		Includes the present value of future premiums and fees on new business paid in installments discounted at the approximate average pre-tax book yield of fixed-maturity securities purchased during the prior calendar year, other than certain fixed-maturities such as loss mitigation securities.

AUM Definitions

The Company uses AUM as a metric to measure progress in its Asset Management segment. Management fee revenue is based on a variety of factors and is not perfectly correlated with AUM. However, the Company believes that AUM is a useful metric for assessing the relative size and scope of the Company’s asset management business. The Company uses measures of its AUM in its decision-making process and uses a measure of change in AUM in its calculation of certain components of management compensation. Investors also use AUM to evaluate companies that participate in the asset management business. AUM refers to the assets managed, advised or serviced by the Asset Management segment and equals the sum of the following:

• the amount of aggregate collateral balance and principal cash of AssuredIM’s CLOs, including CLO Equity that may be held by AssuredIM Funds. This also includes CLO assets managed by BlueMountain Fuji Management, LLC (BM Fuji), which was sold to a third party in second quarter 2021. AssuredIM is not the investment manager of BM Fuji-advised CLOs, but following the sale, AssuredIM sub-advises and continues to provide personnel and other services to BM Fuji associated with the management of BM Fuji-advised CLOs pursuant to a sub-advisory agreement and a personnel and services agreement, consistent with past practices; and
• the net asset value of all funds and accounts other than CLOs, plus any unfunded commitments. Changes in NAV attributable to movements in fund value of certain private equity funds are reported on a quarter lag.

The Company’s calculation of AUM may differ from the calculation employed by other investment managers and, as a result, this measure may not be directly comparable to similar measures presented by other investment managers. The calculation also differs from the manner in which AssuredIM affiliates registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) report “Regulatory Assets Under Management” on Form ADV and Form PF in various ways.

The Company also uses several other measurements of AUM to understand and measure its AUM in more detail and for various purposes, including its relative position in the market and its income and income potential:

“Third-party AUM” refers to the assets AssuredIM manages or advises on behalf of third-party investors. This includes current and former employee investments in AssuredIM Funds. For CLOs, this also includes CLO Equity that may be held by AssuredIM Funds.

“Intercompany AUM” refers to the assets AssuredIM manages or advises on behalf of the Company. This includes investments from affiliates of Assured Guaranty along with general partners’ investments of AssuredIM (or its affiliates) into the AssuredIM Funds.

“Funded AUM” refers to assets that have been deployed or invested into the funds or CLOs.

“Unfunded AUM” refers to unfunded capital commitments from closed-end funds and CLO warehouse funds.

“Fee earning AUM” refers to assets where AssuredIM collects fees and has elected not to waive or rebate fees to investors.

“Non-fee earning AUM” refers to assets where AssuredIM does not collect fees or has elected to waive or rebate fees to investors. AssuredIM reserves the right to waive some or all fees for certain investors, including investors affiliated with AssuredIM and/or the Company. Further, to the extent that the Company’s wind-down and/or opportunity funds are invested in AssuredIM managed CLOs, AssuredIM may rebate any management fees and/or performance fees earned from the CLOs to the extent such fees are attributable to the wind-down and opportunity funds’ holdings of CLOs also managed by AssuredIM.

Conference Call and Webcast Information

The Company will host a conference call for investors at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time (9:00 a.m. Atlantic Time) on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. The conference call will be available via live webcast in the Investor Information section of the Company's website at AssuredGuaranty.com or by dialing 1-844-200-6205 (in the U.S.) or 1-929-526-1599 (International); the passcode is 169640.

A replay of the conference call will be available approximately three hours after the call ends through February 7, 2023. The replay will be available via archived webcast in the Investor Information section of the Company’s website at AssuredGuaranty.com or by dialing 1-866-813-9403 (in the U.S.) or 1-929-458-6194 (International); the passcode is 534304.

Please refer to Assured Guaranty's September 30, 2022 Financial Supplement, which is posted on the Company's website at assuredguaranty.com/agldata, for more information on the Company's financial guaranty portfolio, investment portfolio and other items. In addition, the Company is posting at assuredguaranty.com/presentations its “September 30, 2022 Equity Investor Presentation”.

The Company plans to post by early next week on its website at assuredguaranty.com/agldata the following:

• “Public Finance Transactions in 3Q 2022,” which lists the U.S. public finance new issues insured by the Company in third quarter 2022, and
• “Structured Finance Transactions at September 30, 2022,” which lists the Company's structured finance exposure as of that date.

In addition, the Company will post on its website, when available, the Company's separate-company subsidiary financial supplements and its “Fixed Income Presentation” for the current quarter. Those documents will be furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission in a Current Report on Form 8-K.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a publicly traded (NYSE: AGO), Bermuda-based holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Assured Guaranty provides credit enhancement products to the U.S. and international public finance, infrastructure and structured finance markets and also provides asset management services. More information on Assured Guaranty Ltd. and its subsidiaries can be found at AssuredGuaranty.com.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

Any forward-looking statements made in this press release reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, Assured Guaranty’s calculations of ABV, PVP, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force and total estimated net future premium earnings and statements regarding its capital position and demand for its insurance and other forward-looking statements could be affected by (1) changes in inflation, interest rates, the world’s credit markets or segments thereof, credit spreads, foreign exchange rates or general economic conditions, including the possibility of a recession; (2) consequences of the conflict in Ukraine, including economic sanctions, fragmentation of global supply chains, volatility in energy prices, and the potential for increased cyberattacks; (3) the development, course and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and the governmental and private actions taken in response, and the global consequences of the pandemic and such actions, including their impact on the factors listed in this section; (4) developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect insured obligors’ repayment rates, Assured Guaranty’s insurance loss or recovery experience, investments of Assured Guaranty or assets it manages; (5) reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty’s insurance; (6) the loss of investors in Assured Guaranty’s asset management strategies or the failure to attract new investors to Assured Guaranty’s asset management business; (7) the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or impairments on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures; (8) insured losses in excess of those expected by Assured Guaranty or the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates for insurance exposures, including as a result of the failure to resolve Assured Guaranty’s exposures to Puerto Rico (Puerto Rico or the Commonwealth) in a manner substantially consistent with the support agreements signed to date; (9) increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry; (10) poor performance of Assured Guaranty's asset management strategies compared to the performance of the asset management strategies of Assured Guaranty’s competitors; (11) the possibility that investments made by Assured Guaranty for its investment portfolio, including alternative investments and investments it manages, do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to reduced liquidity at a time it requires liquidity or to unanticipated consequences; (12) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty’s assets and liabilities subject to mark-to-market, including certain of its investments, most of its financial guaranty contracts written in credit default swap form, and certain consolidated variable interest entities; (13) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its insurance subsidiaries, and/or of any securities AGL or any of its subsidiaries have issued, and/or of transactions that AGL’s insurance subsidiaries have insured; (14) the inability of Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable terms; (15) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (16) changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance, bankruptcy and tax laws, or other governmental actions; (17) the possibility that acquisitions made by Assured Guaranty, including its acquisition of BlueMountain Capital Management, LLC (now known as Assured Investment Management LLC) and its associated entities (BlueMountain Acquisition), do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to unanticipated consequences; (18) difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty’s business strategy; (19) loss of key personnel; (20) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (21) natural or man-made catastrophes or pandemics; (22) other risk factors identified in AGL’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC); (23) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; and; (24) management’s response to these factors. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are made as of November 7, 2022, and Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to update publicly or review any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221104005324/en/

Robert Tucker

Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

212-339-0861

rtucker@agltd.com

Ashweeta Durani

Vice President, Media Relations

212-408-6042

adurani@agltd.com

Source: Assured Guaranty Ltd.

FAQ

What was Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s net income for Q3 2022?

Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported a net income of $11 million for Q3 2022.

How much did Assured Guaranty return to shareholders in Q3 2022?

The company returned a total of $113 million to shareholders, which included share repurchases and dividends.

What were the adjusted operating income figures for Assured Guaranty in Q3 2022?

Assured Guaranty's adjusted operating income for Q3 2022 was $133 million, up 369% compared to the previous year.

How did foreign exchange losses impact Assured Guaranty's Q3 2022 results?

The company experienced $72 million in foreign exchange remeasurement losses, contributing to a decline in net income.

What is the significance of the present value of new business production for Assured Guaranty in Q3 2022?

Assured Guaranty reported a present value of new business production of $95 million in Q3 2022, indicating strong business activity.