ALFA reports 4Q23 EBITDA of US $282 million and 2023 EBITDA of US $1.4 billion

Rhea-AI Summary

ALFA, S.A.B. de C.V. announced its unaudited results for the fourth quarter of 2023, highlighting a transformation phase, impressive performance at Sigma, and challenges at Alpek. ALFA's consolidated net leverage ratio is 3.5 times, with Sigma achieving record results and Alpek facing a decline. Alpek focused on cost reduction and cash flow optimization, while Sigma excelled with volume growth and strong performance in the U.S. ALFA's revenue was down 8%, EBITDA 34% lower than 2022. Alpek's revenue and EBITDA declined significantly, impacted by industry conditions and hyperinflation in Argentina. ALFA aims to accelerate debt reduction and finalize its transformation.

Positive

• ALFA positioned for final phase of transformation with refinanced debt and simplified structure
• Sigma achieves record results with all-time high volume, revenue, and EBITDA in 2023
• Alpek faces challenges with revenue, EBITDA down significantly in 4Q23
• ALFA's revenue down 8%, EBITDA 34% lower than 2022
• Alpek focuses on cost reduction and cash flow optimization
• Sigma excels with volume growth and strong performance in the U.S.
• ALFA aims to accelerate debt reduction and complete its transformation process

Negative

• Alpek's revenue, Comparable EBITDA, and EBITDA down 31%, 38%, and 71% year-on-year in 4Q23
• Impairment charges of US $633 million in 2023 for Alpek related to construction pause and shutdown of operations
• ALFA's revenue down 8% and EBITDA 34% lower than 2022

Insights

Financial Analyst

The reported decrease in revenue and EBITDA for ALFA in comparison to the previous year indicates a challenging operating environment, particularly for the Alpek segment. The impairment charges of US $756 million reflect strategic shifts and a response to the changing market conditions, which could signal a proactive approach to asset management but also raises questions about the future performance of these assets.

The net leverage ratio is a critical metric for assessing the company's financial health. ALFA's consolidated net leverage ratio of 3.5 times, while relatively high, is supported by Sigma's strong performance. Sigma's lower leverage ratio of 2.3x, the lowest in eight years, suggests a more robust financial position which could provide resilience against market volatility. However, Alpek's higher leverage and significant revenue decline may warrant investor caution.

ALFA's refinancing of parent-level debt and the suspension of share buybacks are conservative financial moves that could reassure investors about the company's commitment to maintaining financial flexibility. Nonetheless, the overall decline in performance metrics such as EBITDA and net income could impact investor sentiment and the stock's performance in the short term.

Market Research Analyst

The petrochemical industry is currently experiencing a major shift, as evidenced by Alpek's performance. The decline in reference margins and normalized ocean freight rates, combined with regional raw material price disparities, have pressured the segment's profitability. Alpek's initiatives to reduce costs and optimize cash flow, including plant closures and Capex reduction, are strategic responses to these industry headwinds.

On the other hand, Sigma's record performance, driven by volume growth and strong demand for Hispanic-based products in the U.S., suggests a successful adaptation to market demands. Sigma's ability to expand its EBITDA margin in Europe by 200+ basis points year-on-year is particularly noteworthy, demonstrating effective operational management and the potential for continued growth.

Investors should monitor the petrochemical industry's recovery, particularly in Asia, where a 5% increase in polyester margins indicates a possible turnaround. Sigma's performance and strategic initiatives may serve as a model for Alpek's recovery, which could have long-term implications for ALFA's overall business.

Economist

The macroeconomic factors such as hyperinflation in Argentina and the currency exchange rate spike have had direct impacts on Alpek's performance, illustrating the vulnerability of global businesses to local economic conditions. Investors should consider the potential risks associated with operating in volatile economies and the effects of currency fluctuations on multinational companies.

The capex rationalization, including the pause in construction at the Corpus Christi site, is an indicator of ALFA's adaptability to external economic pressures and its strategic prioritization of financial stability over expansion during uncertain times. The decision to refinance debt and reduce dividends aligns with a cautious approach in the face of macroeconomic challenges.

Looking ahead, ALFA's focus on asset monetization to reduce debt could lead to a leaner, more focused operation, which may be beneficial in the long-term. However, the pace of recovery in the petrochemical industry and the success of ALFA's transformation initiatives will be critical in determining the company's future financial performance.

SAN PEDRO GARZA GARCÍA, N.L. Mexico, Feb. 20, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- ALFA, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV: ALFAA) ("ALFA") announced today its unaudited results for the fourth quarter of 2023 ("4Q23"). All figures have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS").

4Q23 / 2023 HIGHLIGHTS

ALFA	• ALFA positioned for final phase of transformation: refinanced parent-level   debt, further simplified corporate structure, lowered dividends and   suspended share buybacks during 2023 • Outstanding performance at Sigma partially offsets a decline at Alpek amid   major shift in petrochemical industry conditions during the year • 2023 Consolidated Results include impairment charges of US $756 million   associated with four key optimization initiatives at Alpek and Sigma • Consolidated Net Leverage ratio of 3.5 times; Alpek 3.4x and Sigma 2.3x
Sigma	• Record fourth quarter results contributed to all-time high Volume,   Revenue and EBITDA in 2023 • Key drivers include volume growth across all channels in Mexico and   strong performance in the Hispanic-based business in the U.S. • Improvement in Europe driven by structural changes: 4Q23 EBITDA up   89% and margin expanded by 200+ basis points y-o-y • Lowest annual net leverage ratio in eight years (2.3x) supported by strong   EBITDA growth
Alpek	• Actively engaged in initiatives to reduce costs and to maximize cash flow • 4Q23 Revenue, Comparable EBITDA and EBITDA down 31%, 38% and   71% year-on-year, respectively • Net Debt down 7% y-o-y supported by cash optimization initiatives   reflected in Net Working Capital recovery and Capex reduction • Sequential improvement in various petrochemical industry references:   Asian polyester margins up 5% • Impact from hyperinflation in Argentina amplified by a spike in exchange   rate at year end • Impairment charges totaled US $633 million in 2023, related to the pause   in construction at the Corpus Christi site, as well as the shutdown of   operations in Cooper River, United States and in Monterrey, Mexico

Message from ALFA's President

"2023 was an important year as ALFA advanced towards the final phase of its transformation. Progress was highlighted by further corporate simplification, greater self-sufficiency at the subsidiaries, disciplined capital allocation and effective liability management which enhances flexibility for required debt reduction.

Regarding operations, our two business units had contrasting performance, with Sigma delivering record figures and Alpek posting lower-than-expected results amid a major shift in petrochemical industry conditions throughout the year.

As a result, ALFA's 2023 Revenue was down 8% and EBITDA was 34% lower versus 2022. Sigma's annual Revenues and EBITDA were up 15% and 37% year-on-year, respectively, while Alpek's Revenues were down 24% and EBITDA declined 65%.

Our petrochemical business faced lower reference margins, normalized ocean freight rates and price disparities in key raw materials between North America and Asia. In addition, Alpek's fourth quarter results were impacted by hyperinflation in its Argentine operations as the currency exchange rate and inflation spiked at the close of the year.

To overcome these challenges, Alpek focused on reinforcing cost competitiveness and optimizing free cash flow. As previously disclosed, difficult footprint rationalization decisions were carried out resulting in two plant closures that provide significant cost savings. Alpek also achieved a substantial recovery in Net Working Capital and rationalized Capex by US $168 million versus its initial Guidance.

Pausing the construction of the integrated PTA-PET plant in Corpus Christi, Texas was among the Capex rationalization initiatives announced earlier due to a significant increase in capital requirements. In accordance with IFRS, Alpek recognized an impairment on its investment in the joint venture at the close of the year. Regardless of the accounting treatment, Alpek will continue to work with its partners to determine the best long-term actions.

Alpek is closely following market developments as it navigates these extraordinary industry conditions. An encouraging sign was a 5% sequential recovery in Asian reference polyester margins during the fourth quarter. Also noteworthy, Alpek's 4Q23 Comparable EBITDA was US $167 million, up 5% quarter on quarter.

Sigma has been the standout performer all year, with financial results further fueled by record fourth quarter Volume, Revenues and EBITDA. Revenues achieved 11 consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth, and 4Q23 EBITDA benefitted from consistent improvement in European operations, which were up 89% year-on-year.

For the full year, key drivers of Sigma's extraordinary performance include Mexico's volume growth across all channels along with a favorable exchange rate. Also, better-than-expected results in the U.S. supported by robust growth in Hispanic products.

Sigma's 37% year-on-year increase in 2023 EBITDA drove its leverage ratio (Net Debt to EBITDA) down to 2.3x; the lowest level in eight years. This metric plays a crucial role as ALFA prepares to complete its transformation.

ALFA is actively seeking to accelerate debt reduction at the Parent level to ensure a strong financial position of the combined ALFA/Sigma entity in anticipation to a potential Alpek spin-off. Therefore in 2023, a significant portion of ALFA's debt was refinanced with multiple bank loans that are prepayable at any time; dividends were reduced; and share buybacks were suspended.

Additionally, Corporate expenses declined 41% year-on-year as simplification efforts move forward. Several senior corporate roles have been consolidated through orderly succession processes and many centralized services have been transferred to the operating units.

Looking ahead, ALFA will focus on selective asset monetization to reduce debt and finalize its transformation. Sigma anticipates a steady outlook, and Alpek expects to continue facing a slow recovery against the current petrochemical industry backdrop.

We look forward to celebrating ALFA's 50th Anniversary in 2024. I am truly honored and proud to look back and see ALFA's legacy as a reliable business partner and responsible corporate citizen reflected across leading businesses that have or will become fully independent. I would like to thank all the ALFA employees and other stakeholders for their support as we continue to navigate a complex macro environment, drive further growth and complete the final steps of the transformation process."

All the best,
Álvaro Fernández

Important note on changes to ALFA's
Consolidated Financial Statements

ALFA's shareholders approved to spin-off ALFA's share ownership of Axtel into a new, listed entity called "Controladora Axtel" on July 12, 2022. The shares of "Controladora Axtel" were distributed to ALFA shareholders and began trading on the Mexican Stock Exchange on May 29, 2023. In accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), Axtel meets the definition of a "Discontinued Operation" for purposes of ALFA's Consolidated Financial Statements. "Discontinued Operations" are the net results of an entity that is either being held for disposal or which has already been disposed of.

The changes in ALFA's Consolidated Financial Statements are as follows:

• The Consolidated Statement of Financial Position presents Axtel's assets as "Current assets from discontinued operations" and its liabilities as "Current liabilities from discontinued operations" at the close of 2022. At the close of 2023, all Axtel figures were eliminated. Prior periods are not restated.
• The Consolidated Statement of Income presents Axtel's net revenues and expenses as a single line item "Profit (loss) from discontinued operations" as follows:
  • 4Q22: accumulated figures for the three months ended December 31, 2022
  • 3Q23: no figures presented related to Axtel
  • 4Q23: no figures presented related to Axtel
  • 2022: accumulated figures for the 12 months of 2022
  • 2023: accumulated figures for the four months and 29 days ended May 29, 2023
• The Change in Net Debt presents Axtel's net inflows and outflows as a single line item "Decrease (Increase) in Net Debt from discontinued operations" as follows:
  • 4Q22: no figures presented related to Axtel
  • 3Q23: no figures presented related to Axtel
  • 4Q23: no figures presented related to Axtel
  • 2022: accumulated figures for the six months and 12 days ended July 12, 2022
  • 2023: no figures presented related to Axtel
• The Change in Net Debt also presents Axtel's Net Debt balance as "Net Debt from discontinued operations" at the close of 3Q22. Prior periods are not restated and subsequent periods (4Q23, 3Q23, 2Q23, 1Q23 and 4Q22) do not present figures related to Axtel.

SELECTED FINANCIAL INFORMATION (US $ MILLION)
				(%) 4Q23 vs.
	4Q23	3Q23	4Q22	3Q23	4Q22	2023	2022	Ch. %
ALFA & Subs
ALFA Revenues	3,885	4,198	4,452	(7)	(13)	16,388	18,085	(9)
Alpek	1,691	1,956	2,457	(14)	(31)	7,759	10,555	(26)
Sigma	2,161	2,209	1,964	(2)	10	8,505	7,425	15
ALFA EBITDA1	282	373	346	(25)	(19)	1,391	2,082	(33)
Alpek	53	126	186	(58)	(71)	514	1,455	(65)
Sigma	229	255	167	(10)	37	893	652	37
ALFA Comparable EBITDA2	395	407	430	(3)	(8)	1,623	2,022	(20)
Alpek	167	160	270	5	(38)	734	1,396	(47)
Sigma	229	255	167	(10)	37	905	652	39
Majority Net Income3	(652)	(49)	(17)	-	-	(711)	578	(223)
CAPEX & Acquisitions4	192	96	139	100	38	569	1,111	(49)
ALFA Net Debt	4,919	4,866	4,751	1	4	4,919	4,751	4
Alpek	1,729	1,675	1,860	3	(7)	1,729	1,860	(7)
Sigma	2,025	2,045	1,782	(1)	14	2,025	1,782	14
ALFA Net Debt/EBITDA5	3.5	3.4	2.3
ALFA Interest Coverage6	3.5	3.7	6.4

1 EBITDA = Operating Income + depreciation and amortization + impairment of assets

2 Comparable EBITDA = Operating Income + depreciation and amortization + impairment of assets + extraordinary items

3 Majority Net Income includes Majority Net Income from Discontinued Operations (Axtel)

4 Includes divestments

5 Times. LTM= Last 12 months. Ratio calculated with Discontinued Operations for all periods

6 Times. LTM= Last 12 months. Interest Coverage= EBITDA/Net Financial Expenses with Discontinued Operations for all periods

4Q23 EARNINGS CALL INFORMATION

Date:	Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Time:	1:00 p.m. EST (NY) / 12:00 p.m. CST (CDMX)
Registration:	https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_asZMEKvYTjSWLUrQaYQuXw
Replay:	https://www.alfa.com.mx/en/events/

About ALFA

ALFA is comprised mainly of two businesses with global operations: Sigma, a leading multinational food company, focuses on the production, marketing, and distribution of quality foods through recognized brands in Mexico, Europe, the United States, and Latin America. Alpek is one of the world's top producers of Polyester (PTA, PET, PET sheet and rPET), and the leader in the Mexican market for Polypropylene (PP) and Expandable Polystyrene (EPS). In 2023, ALFA reported revenues of Ps. 291,207 million (US $16.4 billion), and EBITDA of Ps. 24,783 million (US $1.4 billion). ALFA's shares are quoted on the Mexican Stock Exchange and on Latibex, the market for Latin American shares of the Madrid Stock Exchange. For more information, please visit www.alfa.com.mx

Disclaimer

This release may contain forward-looking information based on numerous variables and assumptions that are inherently uncertain. They involve judgments with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and financial market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately. Accordingly, future results could vary from those set forth in this release. The report presents unaudited financial information. Figures are presented in Mexican pesos or U.S. dollars, as indicated. Where applicable, peso amounts were translated into U.S. dollars using the average exchange rate of the months during which the operations were recorded. Financial ratios are calculated in U.S. dollars. Due to the rounding up of figures, small differences may occur when calculating percent changes from one period to the other.

View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/alfa-reports-4q23-ebitda-of-us-282-million-and-2023-ebitda-of-us-1-4-billion-302066620.html

SOURCE ALFA, S.A.B. de C.V.

FAQ

What is ALFA's ticker symbol?

ALFA's ticker symbol is AFRPP.

What were the key highlights of ALFA's unaudited results for the fourth quarter of 2023?

ALFA highlighted its transformation phase, impressive performance at Sigma, and challenges at Alpek.

What is ALFA's consolidated net leverage ratio?

ALFA's consolidated net leverage ratio is 3.5 times.

How did Sigma perform in 2023?

Sigma achieved record results with all-time high volume, revenue, and EBITDA.

What challenges did Alpek face in 4Q23?

Alpek faced challenges with revenue and EBITDA down significantly in 4Q23.

What is ALFA focusing on in terms of debt reduction?

ALFA aims to accelerate debt reduction and finalize its transformation process.